November 19, 2015
This country is Russia. Rather not the country at all, but a regime led by the person heading one of mightiest, affluent, armed aggressive, and the most dangerous feudal clans in the world.
So, what is the main benefit from the Parisian tragedy for Putin? First of all, terrorists struck a blow against France the day before G20-summit (Antalya, Turkey). On the assumption of available experience, a response of the West should be as rigid as possible. But at the same time, in such cases the West becomes less legible in a choice of allies. Therefore it appears an analogy to September 11, 2001, when Putin offered the United States a helping hand, whereupon a certain warming between Russia and US has started, then the attitude to Russia in the world has changed.
No doubt, this time Putin will take a shot at playing a card of struggle against world terrorism entering the elite club of fighters against the global evil. Using an emotional wave of fear, anxiety and pain, as a reaction to events of November 13 the European leaders may lower the bar for requirements to possible allies fighting against the global terrorism. On his part, Putin will try to manage to get, in exchange for his services, such important preferences for himself. Far and away for ISIL destruction he would expect: removals of sanctions, a silent recognition of annexation of Crimea, returning of Ukraine under the Russian protectorate. Quite possible, personally he won’t make such demands yet, but there is no doubt that this line of Russian diplomacy will be a dominating idea for the next few months. Anyway, the first steps in this direction are already made by representatives of so called “Russian community”. So, an outstanding Russian politician – Putin’s authorized representative, the principal of Institute of political researches, Mr. Sergey Markov following the Paris tragedy has stated at once on his e-page in Facebook: “It is essentially to put an end to the conflict between Russia and the West because of Ukraine”.
All the Kremlin mass-media, whether traditional or on-line agencies, propagate consistently a corresponding message: “You should consider our opinion. President Putin has warned you at the UN session. You should join a coalition before it’s too late”.
Whether Putin will be lucky to achieve his goals and to leave isolation, maintaining a terrorism theme? I do not know. Much depends on our civil activity. Certainly, like the average man, we are subject to momentary emotions and our first reaction to the act of terrorism is predicted: “You should take apart with this situation at any cost” on a short view without any thought, whether this price can be too high for us. Using such moods, Putin forces our politicians to play Realpolitik blitz-party with him expecting to win.
The Paris act of terrorism is a challenge not only to France. It is the challenge for the way of life, culture and the European ideology. The Western civilization is tried to be plunged into atmosphere of mistrust and fear. I’m sure, Europe should take the challenge. The time of thoughtless tolerance to the person, who turned over the world order in 20 months, has passed. We shouldn’t “buy that” hypocritical offers to solve the Syrian conflict and to destroy the ISIL in exchange for the distilled political correctness in words and deeds in relations with the “Mordor” (the Kingdom of Evil). The harm of such scale cannot be local.