November 10, 2016
According to the latest sociological surveys, held in Russia, citizen’s confidence in state authorities is falling. The interesting fact is that the Russians’ 74-percent support of President stands in stark contrast with 20-30-percent support of the government, Federation Council and State Duma. Meanwhile, the negative tendencies permanently strengthen in comparison with previous years when Putin’s rating was much more convincing.
Putin understands perfectly well that previous merits will not serve him for a long time, therefore he actively looks for a reason to outbreak a new war which may not only enable the world to speak about Russia as serious geopolitical player in the international field but also to support his own popularity. Russia’s participation in the events in Georgia, Ukraine and Syria became one more possibility for Putin to turn to the conversation about the bipolar arrangement of the world. The reality is that each and all are well aware that Russia does not have any prerequisites to claim the status of superstate – its economy is extremely weak remaining at the level of the end of previous century, its scientific and technology base come in nowhere and people’s living standards permanently fall. Situation is complicated due to unsolved social problems and relationships in complex interethnic conglomerate which Russia truly is.
Putin knows that fully well though he approaches to a problem in his own way. He makes problems for others, thereby forcing to begin a dialog with him and showing that solution of any serious issue without Russia’s participation is simply impossible.
Impunity of Russia’s military invasion in Georgia: introduction of troops and acquisition of a territory of Abkhazia and South Ossetia – leaded to recurrence of such scenario in Crimea, outbreak of the war in Donbass, purposeless and dreadful Russia’s interference in Syria conflict. Kremlin methodological toolkit is quite diverse. The attempts to affect the election campaign in the United States of America through cyber attacks on server of Democracy party, to exert influence on Trump and Mannafort who anyway make no secret of their loyalty to Russia became apotheosis of immorality of its current policy. Russian security services are involved in financing cyber attacks on systems of voter registration more that in twenty states which resulted in unauthorized access to the systems associated with voting process.
It shall be mentioned that response to Russia’s actions turned out to be quite soft. The USA and Europe confined themselves to introduction of personal sanctions which are not crucial for Russia. Putin’s growth in popularity (in the forefront of ethereal form “Crimea is ours!” and claims to “make it hot for America”) allows solving complex domestic policy issues, however, the time is passing by and domestic problems worsen, therefore Putin is forced to increase rates.
Today Russia manifestly seeks for a cause to outbreak extensive military activities – this is the only strong drug which may enable maintaining the unity of Russia and leader’s rating for a certain time. It’s not difficult to suppose that Putin will further seek to escalate existing conflicts and look for new ones, inducing the West to introduce counter measures and then declare, addressing to its people: “They hit upon us, we had no other choice than answer in kind”.
The Russian leader’s adventurous attempt exposes the world to danger of World War III. In such a situation self-possession and patience, delicate political and economic consideration are the main things that civilized world may set against aggressive policy of today’s Russia which is the successor of the USSR, obtained quite precise R. Reagan’s definition as “Evil Empire”.tyszecki